中国建立天然气期货市场的必要性和可行性

天然气是近期内唯一可能大规模替代煤炭和石油的清洁能源。中国的天然气工业有着广阔的发展前景,而价格则是影响其发展的核心因素。为此,通过研究天然气工业发达国家的经验以及期货市场定价的特点,认识到了中国建立天然气期货市场的必要性:1期货市场发现的价格最接近理想的均衡价格;2期货市场可以发现连续的远期价格;3在合约到期日(交割日)期货价格与现货价格收敛趋同。基于中国天然气市场的现状及发展趋势,认为建立中国自己的天然气期货市场是可行的:1我国天然气现货市场参与者已经达到一定数量,进行期货交易的需求潜力巨大;2我国天然气管输和储备系统基本完善,交割条件已经具备;3国内期货市场快速发展,提供了管理经验和人才保障;4中国地理位置优越,有望成为东亚天然气定价和交割中心。因此中国应该尽快建立天然气期货市场,发现天然气市场价格。

Necessity and feasibility of building natural gas futures markets in China

Natural gas is the only one alternative clean energy source which can replace coal and oil on a large scale at present. Natural gas industry in China has a bright prospect in the near future and its steady and healthy development will highly depend upon a reasonable gas pricing system. In view of this, through an investigation into the rich experiences from those developed countries in natural gas industry as well as the characteristics of gas pricing in futures markets, this paper concludes that it is necessary for China to build its own natural gas futures markets for the following reasons. (1) Gas prices discovered in futures markets are most close to the ideal equilibrium price. (2) In futures markets, gas prices will be possibly predicted in a continuous long term period. (3) On the contract expiration date (or the settlement day), gas prices in futures and in spot markets will come to convergence. In addition, it is also feasible for China to own a natural gas futures market because (1) participators in a natural gas futures market have been more than enough and such a market demand is still soaring high; (2) natural gas pipelines and storage reserves facilities have been almost completed, providing good conditions for physical delivery in a futures market; (3) those futures markets for other products are developing well in present China and have collected good management experiences and accumulated rich talents resources; and (4) due to its predominant geological location, China will be expected to become an important center for natural gas pricing and delivery in East Asia. In conclusion, China needs to build its own natural gas futures markets as soon as possible, thereby to help explore the future gas prices in the global market.