基于二分类Logistic回归模型的 COD总量减排措施的绩效分离评估

我国现行COD总量减排措施主要包括工程类、结构类和管理类措施,为分别评估这3类措施的减排绩效,采用二分类Logistic回归模型进行定量分析,分离各项措施对COD总量减排的贡献度。结果表明：2006—2008年,3类减排措施中有2个指标对COD总量减排的绩效影响最为显著,其中工程减排措施中的集中式污水厂设计处理能力指标对COD总量减排绩效贡献最大,其次是管理减排措施中的强制性清洁生产审核项目数指标,而结构关停措施的减排绩效不显著;2009—2010年,减排作用最大的是城市污水处理厂数指标,但这仍属于集中式工程减排措施。该结果说明我国COD总量减排措施在＂十一五＂期间作用较稳定,其中,工程措施和管理措施对COD总量减排作用最大,以结构关停为代表的结构类措施没有对COD总量减排的作用不明显。

Performance division of COD total emission reduction using binary logistic regression model

COD total emission reduction policies in China mainly include project-promoting,structural,and management measures.To evaluate the performance of these measures in reducing COD total emission,quantitative analysis was conducted using a binary logistic model to separate the contribution degree of these measures.The results show that two indices of the three measures had more significant effects on COD total emission reduction from 2006 to 2008.The centralized wastewater treatment plant＇s design and treatment capability in the project-promoting measure made the greatest contribution to the reduction of COD total emission,followed by the cleaner production auditing in the management measure,while the effects of shutting down the enterprises in the structural measure were not obvious.During the period from 2009 to 2010,urban sewage plants,one of the centralized projectpromoting reduction measures,played a major role in COD total emission reduction.These results show that the COD total emission reduction measures played a consistent role during the 11th Five-Year Plan period in China,and the project-promoting and management measures make a greater contribution to COD total emission reduction than the structural measure.