油气田(井)开发生产全过程分析新方法

基于油气田（井）开发过程中产量数据的变化形态，提出了一种由高等数学理论公式推演出的适合于油气田（井）开发全过程拟合及预测分析的方法。认为已发表的拟合及预测油气田（井）产量的文章中，所引用的计算实例大多经过精心挑选，而现场实际生产数据是有波动的，特别是油气田（井）开发过程中含有开发战略思想调整等人为因素时，产量数据的上下波动更显著。作者采用前苏联北塔夫罗波夫佩拉基阿金气田１９５７～１９７７年的生产数据和我国白杨河油田（开发４０余年，已进入枯竭期）的生产数据，未作任何校正和修改，直接用于文中的实例计算。白杨河油田生产数据的拟合效果参数为５．４％，表明该方法计算简便快捷，拟合预测的准确性较高，平均相对误差仅１．０５％，具有较强的实用价值。表２参３（陈志宏摘）

A new technique for whole production process analysis in oil/gas field (well) development.

Based on the variable shape of production data in oil/gas field (well) development, a history matching and forecast analysis technique suitable for the whole process of oil/gas field (well) development from some theoretical formula in high mathematics is suggested. It is recognized that examples in the matching and forecasting the production data in oil/gas field (well) development in papers and articles so far published have been carefully selected, while actual field data show up and down fluctuation in their shape; especially in the oil/gas field (well) development process, artificial factors, such as adjustment in the strategic ideas are occurred, the production data will fluctuate up and down in a more wide range. s of this article use the 19571977 production data of a gas field of former Soviet Union and those of Baiyanghe oil field (40 years of development, at its latest stage of development) as examples (all data used directly, no any modification was made) in this article, 5.4% has been used as matching parameter in the matching of Baiyanghe oil field production data. This technique is showed to be fast and simple and a fairly accuracy in matching is obtained (with an relative error of 1.05% only). Thus this technique has a fairly strong practical value