同时计及设备老化与不完全维修的电力系统可靠性评估

在电力系统可靠性评估中，建立精确的元件停运模型至关重要。传统模型忽视了设备老化与维修更新性的影响，导致评估误差随着元件运行时间增长而不断增大。针对这一严重不足之处，提出了计及设备老化与不完全预防性维修的元件时变停运概率模型。该模型采用虚拟年龄与改善因子表征预防性维修对故障率的降低效应，采用威布尔模型表征时间对故障率的增长效应。应用所提出的模型对改进的IEEE RTS-79系统进行了可靠性评估。通过改变部分系统元件的维修成本和预防性维修周期模拟实际维修，给出了新模型中不同维修策略的系统可靠性评估结果，并与传统方法进行了对比分析。结果表明提出的模型能更准确地反映实际维修效果，更精确地预测电力系统中长期可靠性水平。

Power system reliability evaluation considering deterioration and imperfect maintenance of equipment

It is important to develop accurate component outage models for reliability evaluation in power system. However, the traditional models neglect the impacts of deterioration and maintenance of equipment, making the estimation error increase with the operating time. Aimed at this problem, a time-varying outage model based on aging characteristics and imperfect preventive maintenance is proposed, in which the virtual age and improvement factor are used to characterize the effects of maintenance and the Weibull model is adopted to reflect the aging trend of failure rate. The proposed model is applied to the reliability evaluation of a modified IEEE RTS-79 system, the reliability evaluation results of different maintenance strategies with different cycles and costs are given in detail and compared with that of traditional model. All the results show that the proposed model is more accurate in power system reliability evaluation and can reflect the actual complex maintenance. This work is supported by Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China (No. 20110141110032).