基于区间的电力建设项目经济评估方法研究

为解决现代电力建设项目不确定经济评估问题,提出了一套基于区间的不确定经济评估新方法。建立以区间现金流、区间利率为基础的经济评估模型;基于该模型推导了确定生命期和不确定生命期条件下的项目经济评估区间方法,主要包括区间净现值(INPV)法、区间动态投资回收期(IPT)法和区间内部收益率(IIRR)法,并给出了项目风险的计算方法;结合算例研究了几种区间评估方法在确定生命期和不确定生命期条件下的应用。算例分析表明,区间方法能较好地处理经济评估中的不确定性,不仅能有效判断项目在经济上的可行性,而且还可确定项目执行的风险程度,是一种适用于电力建设项目的柔性经济评估方法。

Study on interval-based economic evaluation methods for electric power construction projects

For solving the economic evaluation problem of electric power construction projects with uncertainties, a series of new economic evaluation methods were proposed for electric construction projects. Firstly, models based on Interval Cash Flow and Interval Interest for economic evaluation were established. Then, on the basis of these models, interval economic evaluation methods were presented, including Interval Net Present Value (INPV), Interval Payback Period (IPT), Interval Internal Rate of Return (IIRR) under certain life period and uncertain life period. Additionally, the correspoinding methods to measure the risk of project were also put up. Finally, cases were given to test and compare these interval methods under certain life period and uncertain life period conditions. Case study suggests that the proposed methods are efficient and flexible evaluation tools suitable for electric power construction projects, which can effectively judge the feasibility of the project, as well as estimate the risk likely to be undertaken.