随机多阶段任务成功概率仿真评估研究

多阶段任务系统在工业和军事领域有着广泛应用，准确评估其任务成功概率，对于了解系统性能状态和指导任务规划具有十分重要的现实意义。针对武器装备任务具有较强随机性这一特点，研究随机条件下多阶段任务成功概率仿真评估方法，建立存在随机共因失效时，不可中断和可中断随机多阶段任务成功概率仿真评估流程，并采用Matlab实现了该仿真过程。结合算例，验证了仿真流程的正确性和有效性，并分析了任务参数对任务成功概率的影响。分析结果表明：该仿真评估方法可用于可中断和不可中断随机多阶段任务成功概率评估，能有效解决复杂任务的任务成功概率评估问题；对装备任务进行合理规划，能提高其任务成功概率。

Research on Simulation of Mission Completion Success Probability Assessment for Random Phased-mission

Phased-mission system extensively exists in modern industrial and military fields,and it is of great practical significance to get its mission completion success probability for system performance evaluation and mission scheduling.Taking some special characteristics of mission profile of weapon systems into consideration,the mission completion success probability assessments of two kinds of missions under random condition are addressed.The simulation procedures of interruption inadmissible and interruption permitted random phased-missions subjected to random common-cause failures are proposed.Additionally,the simulation procedures are achieved by Matlab programming.An illustrative example is presented to verify the validity of the proposed procedures.The effects of parameters associated with phased-mission on the mission completion success probability are discussed.The results show that the proposed method can be adopted to assess the mission completion success probability of interruption permitted or inadmissible random phased-mission,and provides an alternative approach to success completion probability assessment of complicated mission.The reasonable mission scheduling can improve system's mission completion success probability which is shown to be important for practical equipment support and management.