基于模糊综合评判的电力变压器运行状态评估模型

研究了结合模糊理论对变压器运行状态进行模糊评价的多级评估方法。首先，以预防性试验为基础，综合考虑工作环境、运行资料、检修记录和附件情况，建立层次型评估指标体系。引入了相对劣化度来表征变压器实际状态向故障转化的相对劣化程度；以相对劣化度为输入，搭建神经网络确定了色谱状态量的隶属函数；利用模糊统计试验法和模糊分布法分别建立了定性指标和其余定量指标相对劣化度的隶属函数。在此基础上，基于模糊综合评判思想建立电力变压器运行状态评估模型，分别对各层评判因素进行了评估，并综合得出变压器的运行状态。经实例分析表明，基于模糊综合评判的电力变压器运行状态评估方法是合理和有效的。

Condition Assessment Model for Power Transformer in Service Based on Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation

A multi-grade fuzzy evaluation method for power transformer using fuzzy theory is proposed. Firstly, a layered evaluation index system on the base of preventive experiments, including working surroundings, operation history, maintenance records, accessories section and so on is built. Then, the relative impairment degree is introduced to describe the relative grade of transformers changing from actual conditions to faults. Taking the relative impairment grade as inputs, a neural network is applied to compute the member function of dissolved gases. The member functions for qualitative indices and the quantitative indices are respectively determined with helps of a fuzzy statistic method and a fuzzy distribution method. An operation condition evaluation model for power transformer, which evaluates the state of every grade and gives a comprehensive assessment of transformer, is established on the base of the fuzzy synthetic judgment. Example analysis shows the condition assessment model proposed is sound and effective.