变化环境下水文设计值计算方法研究综述

系统总结了国内外在变化环境下单、多变量水文设计值计算及计算成果不确定性评估三方面的研究成果,重点评述了基于水文极值系列重构、分布函数加权综合和变参数概率分布模型3类单变量水文设计值计算方法,分析了考虑边缘分布非一致性和结构参数非一致性的变参数联合分布函数模型,指出一致性条件下多变量重现期和设计值计算方法无法应用于非一致性条件下的多变量情景。提出了变化环境下水文设计值计算领域需进一步深入研究的问题,包括已建工程设计洪水复核调整、多变量情形下组合设计值计算、计算成果可靠性评估等。

Review on computational methods of hydrological design values in changing environment

The advances on the estimation of hydrological design values in changing environment in terms of univariate, multivariate design value estimation and uncertainty analysis of design values were systematically summarized. The series reconstruction method, weighted synthesis of distributed functions and varying-parameter probabilistic distribution model were reviewed with the emphasis for univariate hydrological design value estimation. In multivariate hydrological design value estimation, the varying-parameter joint distribution function model considering the inconsistency of marginal distribution and structural parameters of multivariate was analyzed and it is pointed out that the method for calculating the multivariate return period or design value cannot be applied to the multivariate cases under inconsistent conditions. This paper puts forward the problems to be further explored in the field of hydrological design value estimation under changing environments, including the design flood adjustment of the constructed projects, estimation of the combined design values in multivariate cases and the reliability evaluation of the calculation results.