| 大坝服役非概率可靠性分析方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 顾冲时,张晶梅. 大坝服役非概率可靠性分析方法[J]. 水利水电科技进展, 2018, 38(5): 1-9 |
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| 作者姓名： | 顾冲时 张晶梅 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室;河海大学水利水电学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0401601);国家自然科学基金(51739003,51479054) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对大坝服役可靠性影响因子具有非概率不确定特征的情况,建立了定量刻画大坝服役可靠性非概率影响因子的Info-gap模型,运用Info-gap决策理论和体积比非概率可靠性度量方法,提出了大坝服役非概率可靠性分析方法,拟定了大坝服役非概率目标可靠度。应用提出的非概率方法分析了某大坝结构服役可靠性,各功能模式可靠性分析结果说明了该方法的工程适用性,同时也验证了所拟定大坝服役非概率目标可靠度的合理性。
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| 关 键 词： | 大坝 服役可靠性 非概率不确定性 Info-gap模型 非概率可靠度 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-05-04 |
Non-probabilistic reliability analysis methods of dam service performance |
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| GU Chongshi and ZHANG Jingmei. Non-probabilistic reliability analysis methods of dam service performance[J]. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources, 2018, 38(5): 1-9 |
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| Authors: | GU Chongshi and ZHANG Jingmei |
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| Affiliation: | State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China and State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China |
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| Abstract: | Aiming at the non-probabilistic characteristics of the factors influencing dam service reliability, a non-probabilistic Info-gap model is established to quantifiably describe the non-probabilistic uncertainty of the influence factors. A non-probabilistic reliability analytical method of dam service performance is proposed based on two non-probabilistic reliability measures, Info-gap decision theory and the volume ratio. Non-probabilistic target reliability indexes of dam service performance are then preliminarily determined. The proposed non-probabilistic method is used to analyze the structural service reliability of a dam. The results of the reliability analysis in various function modes demontrste the engineering applicability of the method and the varified rationality of the determined non-probabilistic target reliability as well. |
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| Keywords: | dam service reliability non-probabilistic uncertainty Info-gap model non-probabilistic reliability |
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