土壤含水量增墒、退墒预测模型的研建与应用

在天然旱地植被系统中,土壤水大小与大气水、地表水和蒸散量等因素关系密切,且存在水量平衡关系。依据水量平衡关系和实测水文资料,以连续无雨日数为影响因子,创建土壤含水量与连续无雨日数相关关系,该关系式即为单站无雨退墒预测模型;以降水为影响因子,创建土壤含水量增量与降水量相关关系,该关系式即为有雨增墒预测模型,实现短期内土壤含水量动态变化预测。预测模型已应用到2016年吉林省中西部墒情分析评价工作中,应用结果表明:该模型理论依据充分,符合天然旱地植被系统中的水量平衡关系;建模简单,应用便捷,可进行短期土壤含水量增墒、退墒预测,预测结果能够科学反映土壤含水量动态变化规律。

Development and application of predictive model for soil moisture content increase and retreat

In natural dry land vegetation system, soil water is closely related to atmospheric water, surface water and evapotranspiration, and there is a water balance relationship. According to the relationship of water balance and the measured hydrological data, the relationship between soil water content and continuous no rain days is created with continuous no rain days as the influence factor. The relation is the prediction model of single station without rain, and the relationship between soil water content increment and water reduction is established by precipitation as the influence factor. The prediction model of rainfall increase soil moisture can predict the dynamic change of soil water content in short term. The prediction model has been applied to the soil moisture analysis and evaluation of the central and Western Jilin Province in 2016. The application results show that the model is full of theoretical basis and meets the water balance relationship in the natural dryland vegetation system. The modeling is simple and the application is convenient. It can carry on the short-term soil moisture content and the prediction of soil moisture, and the forecast results can be scientifically reversed. The dynamic change law of soil water content was shown.