Impact of life expectancy and tumor doubling time on the clinical significance of prostate cancer in Japan

Theoretical projected prostate cancer volume at the time of expected death was determined based on patient age and index cancer volume at diagnosis, assumed cancer volume doubling time and life expectancy of the Japanese male population. Based on the data obtained, evaluation was made of the results for 104 consecutive radical prostatectomy cases with no prior treatment. Clinically insignificant cancer in 104 prostatectomy specimens was found to occur at 4.8, 10.6, 15.4 and 26.9% for tumor doubling times of 2, 3, 4 and 6 years, respectively. Assuming a 2-year doubling time with clinically insignificant cancer excluded, only 36.4% of significant cancers could be considered potentially curable and with a 3-year doubling time, 32.3%. For 4- and 6-year doubling times, only 30.7 and 25.0% of the clinically insignificant cancers were potentially curable, respectively. Approximately half of these insignificant cancers were clinically stage T1c disease. In all stage T1c cases, 8.8-47.1% was considered insignificant, depending on tumor doubling time. Patient life expectancy and tumor doubling time significantly determine the outcome of treatment for prostate cancer, especially in elderly males with higher risk of mortality. The outcome of radical prostatectomy is less satisfactory with these factors taken into consideration. Many patients with stage T1c disease may eventually prove to require no treatment.