国际能源结构转型趋势及典型路径比较分析

目前,德国和美国在能源结构转型上都已经取得了一定的成绩,不过两国选择的是两条不尽相同的典型路径。德国更关注低碳清洁转型,其转型路径主要是发展可再生能源以及淘汰核能、逐步减少煤炭使用;从效果来看,德国可再生能源占能源生产和消费结构的比重提高,碳排放量降低。美国则在关注低碳清洁转型的同时,更加关注能源安全,其转型路径既包括非常规油气的大规模开采,也关注可再生能源的前期研发;从效果来看,大大提高了美国的能源安全保障,能源对外依存度逐年下降,并减少了碳排放量。当然,两国在能源结构转型过程中也存在一些问题。德国和美国的经验告诉我们,能源结构转型需要经历一个很长的过程,当前化石能源仍占据主体地位,而技术进步是能源结构转型的根本保障。我国一方面应加强新能源(包括非常规油气)和可再生能源的开发,加大对技术研发的支持和投入力度;另一方面也要进一步加强化石能源,尤其是煤炭的清洁高效利用。另外,应充分进行前瞻性的战略规划和布局,处理好能源结构转型与经济增长、能源行业整体健康发展之间的平衡关系。

A Comparative Analysis of the Tendency in International Energy Mix Transition and Typical Pathway Comparison

Both Germany and the United States have made some achievements in energy mix transition ;however,these two countries have chosen two different typical pathways.Germany is more concerned about low carbon and clean energy and its transition pathway is primarily to expand the use of renewable energy,to gradually reduce the use of coal and to stop use of nuclear energy.The effect of the German transition is that the proportion of renewable energy in Germany＇s energy production and consumption is increasing and that carbon emissions have dropped.In contrast,while having low carbon and clean energy in its sights,the United States pays more attention to energy security.Its transition pathways include large-scale production of unconventional oil and gas and enhancement of renewable energy research and development.The transition has greatly improved the energy security of the United States, gradually reduced the US dependence on foreign energy and helped the country reduce carbon emissions.However,both countries have met with some problems in their energy mix transition processes.The German and US experience tells us that energy mix transition is a very long process.Fossil fuels currently still dominate energy use,and technological advancement is funda- mental to energy mix transition.In this point,China should not only strengthen the development of new energy （including unconventional oil and gas） and renewable energy and increase its support and investment in re search and development ,but should also strengthen the clean and efficient use of fossil fuels, especially coal. In addition,China should plan its energy development strategically and proactively,and strive to balance its economic growth ,energy industry development and energy mix transition.