变化环境下长江流域滨海城市供水安全与适应性对策

全球气候变化和高强度人类活动影响导致长江流域水循环变化及相关联的城市群水资源供需矛盾问题，尤其在长江下游上海等滨海城市供水安全问题更加凸显，这已成为长江大保护十分关注的重要问题之一。以典型滨海城市上海为例，重点论述变化环境对长江流域的供水安全风险问题；分析当前和未来上海城市供水极端干旱影响、长江淡水与河口咸潮互动供水窗口压力，以及上海城市供水管理综合运用工程措施和预警预报、调度等非工程措施的挑战；提出若干对策与建议，包括供水安全保障的系统思维与战略规划、提升城市供水安全的系统智能化与智慧化管理水平以及完善供水安全保障的管理体系。

Water security and adaptive management for coastal cities of Yangtze River basin under changing environment

Impacts of global climate change and the high-intensity human activities have led to changes in the water cycle in the Yangtze River basin and the contradiction between the water supply and water demand in the river basin and its associated urban agglomerations. This issue is especially highlighted in the water supply security of coastal cities, such as the Shanghai is in the lower reaches of Yangtze River, and has become one of the important issues of great concern for the protection of the Yangtze River. This study examines how changes in the environment affect the risk of water supply security in Shanghai. It specifically focuses on the Qingcaosha reservoir system. This text analyzes the impact of extreme droughts on current and future urban water supplies in Shanghai. It discusses the pressure on the water supply due to the interaction between the fresh water of the Yangtze River and the salty tides in the estuary. It also highlights the challenges faced in managing Shanghai''s urban water supply, including the integrated use of engineering and non-engineering measures such as early warning, forecasting and scheduling. To improve water supply safety and security, it is recommended to implement systematic thinking and strategic planning, upgrade the level of systematic intelligence and smart management for urban water supply safety, and improve the management system for water supply safety and security.