宝鸡市水资源脆弱性评价

以宝鸡市为研究区域,针对复杂的人水关系,对1999-2015年间水资源脆弱性进行整体评价,并预估未来趋势,找到影响宝鸡市水资源脆弱性的主导因子,为降低水资源脆弱性提供合理的解决方案。以DPSIR模型为基础,选取出19个能够反映出宝鸡市水资源脆性的指标,依靠层次分析法与熵值法主客观组合赋权的优势,结合模糊综合评价法对各项指标进行综合得分,借助S型曲线对水资源脆弱性与指标综合得分之间建立非线性函数关系,由此对17a间水资源脆弱性进行等级划分。结果表明:宝鸡市水资源整体呈严重脆弱(Ⅳ级),但整体及未来下降趋势明显,降水与工业重复用水率为其主导因子,改善水资源管理模式是水资源脆弱性下降的重要举措。

Evaluation on water resources vulnerability of Baoji City

Taking Baoji city as the research area and aiming at understanding the complexity of the human-water relationship in Baoji, this paper made a comprehensive evaluation of the water resource vulnerability from 1999 to 2015, predicted the future development trend, and found out the leading factors affecting the water resource vulnerability in baoji, so as to reduce the water resource vulnerability ability to provide reasonable solutions. Based on the DPSIR model, 19 indicators were chosen to reflect the brittleness of water resources in baoji. Relying on the advantages of combination of subjective and objective weighting by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy method, and combining with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the comprehensive scores of various indicators were obtained. Using the S-type curve, the non-linear function relationship between water resource vulnerability and index comprehensive score was established, and the water resource vulnerability in the past 17 years was classified. The results showed that water resources in baoji city were in a weak position (level 4) overall, but the overall trend and future decline trend were obvious. Precipitation and industrial reuse water rate are the main factors; therefore, improving water resource management model is an important measure to reduce water resource vulnerability.