西安市城市化与水资源环境耦合关系研究及预测

基于西安市2005-2017年的统计数据,构建了城市化与水资源环境间的耦合模型,对二者间的耦合关系及影响因素进行了分析、预测。结果表明:2005-2017年西安市城市化与水资源环境的耦合协调度介于0. 3299～0. 9675之间,整体呈波动上升趋势,70%的年份属于高协调度耦合; 2005-2012年为城市化发展滞后于水资源环境阶段,2013-2017年为城市化发展超前于水资源环境阶段,得益于西安市采取一系列富有成效的措施,使水资源环境状况不断改善,但与城市化的高速发展相比还是显得不够,水资源环境指数将长期低于城市化综合指数; 2020年水资源环境状况虽有所改善,但仍不能满足未来城市化的快速发展,水资源短缺将是西安市城市发展长期面临的重大问题,因此加强水资源保护、提升市政供水和污水处理能力及增强市民节水意识刻不容缓。

Research and prediction relationship of the coupling of urbanization and water resources environment in Xi'an City

Based on the statistical data of Xi''an from 2005 to 2017, a coupling and coordination model between urbanization and water resources environment was constructed. The coupling relationship and influencing factors between urbanization and water resources environment in Xi''an were analyzed and predicted. The results showed that the coupling degree of urbanization and water resources environment in Xi''an from 2005 to 2017 was between 0.3299 and 0.9675, and the overall trend was increase with fluctuations, and 70% of the years are highly coordinated coupling. 2005-2012 is the stage of urbanization development lagging behind the water resources environment, and 2013-2017 is the stage of the water resources environment ahead of urbanization development. Benefited from a series of fruitful measures of Xi''an, the environmental status of water resources improved.But compared with the rapid development of urbanization, it still appears to be relatively lagging. The water resources environmental index will be lower than the urbanization comprehensive index for a long time. Although the water resources environment has improved in 2020, it still cannot meet the rapid development of urbanization. The shortage of water resources will be a long-term major problem of the urban development of Xi''an. Therefore, it is imperative to strengthen water resources protection, improve municipal water supply and sewage treatment capacity, and enhance public awareness of water conservation.