粮油作物中黄曲霉毒素风险预测预警研究进展

粮油作物中黄曲霉毒素污染严重影响着人和动物的健康。开展粮油作物中黄曲霉毒素产生关键影响因素研究,构建早期风险预测模型,是减少污染发生、保障人类健康和减少经济损失的重要途径。本文在总结黄曲霉毒素在粮油作物中风险发生的影响因素的基础上,从黄曲霉毒素易发多发的环节如作物收获期和储藏期讨论了预测模型建的研究进展,同时归纳了目前预测模型主要建立方法,包括基于回归、神经网络等方法建立的数据驱动模型和基于黄曲霉毒素产生机制建立的机理模型。通过分析目前的研究,讨论了未来粮油作物中黄曲霉毒素风险预测模型的研究方向和应用场景,为开展我国作物中黄曲霉毒素污染风险早期预测和污染防控研究提供依据。

Recent advances in prediction of the risk of aflatoxin in grain and oil crops

Aflatoxins in grain and oil crops can seriously affect human and animal health. The study of key factors affecting the production of aflatoxins in grain and oil crops and the development of early risk prediction models are important ways to reduce aflatoxins, protect human health and reduce economic losses. On the basis of summarizing the factors affecting aflatoxin risk occurrence in grain and oil crops, this paper discussed the research progress of aflatoxin prediction model construction from the links prone to frequent occurrence of aflatoxin, such as crop harvest and storage period, and summarized the main methods of prediction model construction at present. Data-driven models based on regression and neural networks and mechanism models based on aflatoxin production mechanisms are included. By analyzing the current research, future research directions and application scenarios for aflatoxin risk prediction models for grain and oil crops are discussed, providing a basis for early prediction and pollution prevention and control of aflatoxin risk in Chinese crops.