计及元件故障率时变特性的综合能源系统运行可靠性高效评估方法

为提高运行可靠性评估效率，进而支撑系统运行风险防控，基于模型-数据混合驱动的思想提出了一种计及元件故障率时变特性的综合能源系统运行可靠性高效评估方法。构建了基于复杂网络理论的支路脆弱度因子指标，提出系统关键元件的筛选方法。建立系统可靠性指标关于关键元件可靠性参数的解析模型，通过引入辅助变量建立线性优化模型求取解析模型系数。通过最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)回归模型获得运行可靠性解析模型与负荷水平的映射关系，实现负荷变化时系统运行可靠性的快速更新。通过算例测试验证了所提方法的计算效率和精度。

Efficient evaluation method for operational reliability of integrated energy system considering time-varying characteristics of component failure rate

In order to improve the efficiency of operational reliability evaluation and further support the prevention and control of system operational risk, an efficient evaluation method for operational reliability of integrated energy system considering time-varying characteristics of component failure rate is proposed based on the idea of model-data hybrid drive. A branch vulnerability factor index based on complex network theory is constructed, and a screening method for key components of the system is proposed. The analytical model of the system reliability index about the reliability parameters of key components is established, and the coefficients of the analytical model are obtained by introducing auxiliary variables to establish a linear optimization model. The mapping relationship between the analytical model of operational reliability and the load level is obtained through the least squares support vector machine(LSSVM) regression model to realize the rapid update of the system operational reliability when the load changes. The computational efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method are verified by an example test.