考虑风电-负荷及综合需求响应不确定性的能量枢纽双层优化运行及配置方法

现有研究在关注多能互补系统中源荷双侧不确定性问题时，忽略了用户侧综合需求响应(IDR)不确定性的影响。为此，文章以能量枢纽(EH)为研究对象，综合考虑可再生能源发电侧、用电侧以及用户侧电/热综合需求响应三方面不确定性，提出一种双层能量枢纽规划配置模型。论文结合非参数密度估计与Copula理论对传统源荷双侧不确定性概率模型进行改进，同时基于基线负荷与负荷弹性系数双重不确定性，提出电/热综合需求响应量计算方法；在此基础上，以系统年综合运行费用最小为目标，分层求解能量枢纽设备配置与能量分配情况。算例表明，配置计算中计及IDR有助于平缓系统净负荷曲线，减小用户用能及间歇性电源出力不确定性对系统配置结果的影响，使系统经济、环保运行。

A two-layer optimal operation and configuration method for energy hub considering uncertainty of wind power - load and comprehensive demand response

The existing studies ignore the influence of the uncertainty of integrated demand response (IDR) on the system configuration. Therefore, taking energy hub (EH) as the research object, a two-layer energy hub planning and configuration model is proposed with the uncertainty of wind power output, power load and integrated demand response quantity of electricity/heat comprehensively considered. Firstly, based on kernel density estimation and Copula theory, the joint probability distribution of wind power output-electricity baseline load is established, and typical daily scenarios are generated. At the same time, based on the double uncertainty of baseline load and load elasticity coefficient, a method for calculating the stochastic response quantity of integrated demand for electricity and heat is proposed. Then a mixed integer nonlinear programming model is established with the goal of minimizing the annual operating cost of the system. The example shows that taking IDR into account in the configuration calculation can help to smooth the net load curve of the system, reduce the influence of user energy and intermittent power supply output uncertainty on the system configuration result, and thus improve the system economy.