| 大坝变形监控的逐步回归马尔科夫模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱劭宇,施晓萍. 大坝变形监控的逐步回归马尔科夫模型[J]. 水利水文自动化, 2010, 0(1): 69-72 |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱劭宇 施晓萍 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 广东省飞来峡水利枢纽管理局,广东,清远,511518
2. 水利部南京水利水文自动化研究所,江苏,南京,210012 |
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| 摘 要： | 常规逐步回归模型具有建模简单,能表示自变量和因变量的显式函数关系和使用广泛等优点,但逐步回归模型在因变量测值波动比较大时拟合和预报误差大,而马尔科夫链模型具有适应大波动的优点,为此将逐步回归与马尔科夫模型相结合,提出一种高精度的变形预报模型.在介绍逐步回归模型和马尔科夫预报模型概念的基础上,利用某大坝的实测资料进行建模分析.实践表明,变形预报值能很好地吻合了实测结果,表明该模型可以用于大坝安全监控.
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| 关 键 词： | 大坝 安全监控 逐步回归 马尔科夫链 模型 变形预报 |
Stepwise Regression Markov Model for Dam Deformation Monitoring |
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| ZHU Shao-yu,SHI Xiao-ping. Stepwise Regression Markov Model for Dam Deformation Monitoring[J]. Automation in Water Resources and Hydrology, 2010, 0(1): 69-72 |
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| Authors: | ZHU Shao-yu SHI Xiao-ping |
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| Affiliation: | ZHU Shao-yu 1,SHI Xiao-ping 2(1.Administrative Bureau of Feilaixia Hydro-junct,Qingyuan 511518,China,2.Nanjing Automation Institute of Water Conservancy & Hydrology,Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing 210012,China) |
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| Abstract: | General stepwise regression model possess advantages of simple model construction,expression of explicit function relationships between independent variable and dependent variable,and wide application as well.But the regression model has demerits of big fitting and forecasting error while there is a great fluctuation of dependent variable measured value.Whereas,Markov model features with advantage of adaptive to great fluctuation.This essay presents a deformation monitoring forecasting model with high preci... |
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| Keywords: | dam monitoring for safety stepwise regression markov chain model deformation forecasting |
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