基于模糊故障树的电网倒塔事故安全风险分析

采用故障树理论，从系统的角度对输电线路倒塔事故的原因进行逐层分解，对倒塔事故的安全风险因素进行辨识．考虑到强风暴对电网事故故障树基本事件发生概率的取值具有一定的不确定性，将基本事件的发生概率作为模糊数进行处理，并对电网输电线路倒塔事故中间事件和顶事件模糊故障树进行分析计算．实例分析表明，基于模糊数的故障树分析方法对电网倒塔事故的安全风险分析是可行的，并具有一定的应用价值．

Safety Risk Analysis of Tower Collapses in Electric Transmission Line Based on Fuzzy Fault Tree Method

This paper analyzes the fault causes by layer upon layer based on the systematology, and identifies the safety risk of the tower collapses. Given that the fault probability caused by the strong storm is undefined, this paper regards the probability of the basic event as fuzzy datum, and illustrates the whole analysis process of the safety risk of tower collapses based on the fault tree logic structure of intermediate and top events. The applied example shows that it is possible and applicable to use the fuzzy fault tree method in analyzing the safety risk of the tower collapse accidents of electric transmission line hierarchically.