Prediction method for October 2003 solar storm |
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摘 要: | Aiming at two intense shock events on October 28 and 29, 2003, this paper presents a two-step method, which combines synoptic analysis of space weather ——“observing” and quantitative prediction ——“palpating”, and then uses it to test predictions. In the first step of “observing”, on the basis of observations of the solar source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shocks is asymmetric relative to the normal direction of their solar sources, and the Earth is located near the direction of the fastest speed and the greatest energy of the shocks. As the two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion of coronal mass of the extremely high temperature, the strong magnetic field, and the high speed background solar wind are also helpful to their rapid propagation. In the second step of “palpating”, we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results show that for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8% and 6.7%; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative errors are 4.1% and 3.1%, re- spectively. Furthermore, the comparison among the predicted results of our two-step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the two-step method is advantageous. The results tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction precision.
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收稿时间: | 29 June 2005 |
修稿时间: | 24 May 2006 |
Prediction method for October 2003 solar storm |
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Authors: | XIE Yanqiong WEI Fengsi FENG Xueshang ZHONG Dingkun |
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Affiliation: | 1. State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, Center for Space Science and Applied Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China;Graduate School, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China;Institute of Meteorology, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 211101, China 2. State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, Center for Space Science and Applied Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China 3. State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, Center for Space Science and Applied Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China;Graduate School, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China |
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Abstract: | Aiming at two intense shock events on October 28 and 29, 2003, this paper presents a two-step method, which combines synoptic
analysis of space weather — “observing” and quantitative prediction — “palpating”, and then uses it to test predictions. In
the first step of “observing”, on the basis of observations of the solar source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation
(IPS) and ACE spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shocks is asymmetric relative to the normal direction of their
solar sources, and the Earth is located near the direction of the fastest speed and the greatest energy of the shocks. As
the two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion of coronal mass of the extremely high temperature, the strong magnetic
field, and the high speed background solar wind are also helpful to their rapid propagation. In the second step of “palpating”,
we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results show that for the onset
time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8% and
6.7%; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative errors are 4.1% and 3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison
among the predicted results of our two-step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the two-step method
is advantageous. The results tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation thoroughly is of great
importance in improving the prediction precision. |
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Keywords: | solar storm interplanetary shock interplanetary scintillation two-step method ISF method |
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