我国城镇化速度和趋势分析——基于面版数据的跨国比较研究

建立了41个人口规模在1000万以上大国的面版非线性模型,对世界及中国城镇化的速度和趋势进行了研究,发现:中国的城镇化进程与经济发展水平之间的关系也呈现S型的曲线变化,但曲线更为平滑,体现了与世界大国城镇化进程的差异。以2009年购买力平价美元计算,中国人均1339美元、城镇化率22.92%是快速城镇化的起点值,低于世界平均水平5.16个百分点;中国人均12088美元、城镇化率50.69%是快速城镇化的结束值,低于世界平均水平16.32个百分点;中国人均28306美元、城镇化水平达到61.55%时,基本完成城镇化进程,将低于世界平均水平12.32个百分点。但由于中国特殊的经济发展进程、土地制度安排和威权政治体制,会对城镇化的发展趋势产生深刻影响。特别是深化经济社会的改革,会使城镇化的峰值有大幅度提高。

SPEED AND TENDENCY OF CHINA'S URBANIZATION: COMPARATIVE STUDY BASED ON CROSS-COUNTRY PANEL DATA MODEL

The speed and tendency of urbanization in China and other countries are studied by applying a non-linear model with panel data from 41 large countries with population more than ten millions. When studying the relationship between China’s urbanization and economic development, there is a flatter s-shaped curve reflecting the urbanization variation between China and other large countries. Accounted by the PPP of 2009, the rapid urbanization process of China commenced as the GDP per capita was 1,339 US dollars and urbanization level was 22.92%, which was lower than the world average level by 5.16 percentage points. The rapid urbanization phase of China would end while the GDP per capita reaches 12,088 US dollars and urbanization level reaches 50.69%,which is lower than the world average level by 16.32 percentage points. And the China’s urbanization would complete when the GDP per capita climbs to 28,306 US dollars and urbanization level reaches 61.55%, which is lower than the world average level by 12.32 percentage points. Nevertheless,the unique background of China, including its socio-economic development, land institution and politics system, will influence the tendency of urbanization greatly, and the further deepened socio-economic reform will dramatically promote the maximum of the urbanization level of China.