| 计及污闪概率的输电线路运行风险评估理论与指标体系 |
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| 引用本文： | 帅海燕,龚庆武,陈道君. 计及污闪概率的输电线路运行风险评估理论与指标体系[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2011, 31(16) |
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| 作者姓名： | 帅海燕 龚庆武 陈道君 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 武汉交通职业学院,湖北省,武汉市,430065
2. 武汉大学电气工程学院,湖北省,武汉市,430072 |
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| 基金项目： | 科技部科学技术重点项目(NCSIE-2006-JKZX-174); 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(20082070101000035)~~ |
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| 摘 要： | 针对目前高电压技术与输电线路运行可靠性研究相分离的现状,建立了考虑污闪影响的输电线路运行风险评估理论.首先基于一定工作电压下绝缘子的污闪概率模型及条件概率原理得出污闪下线路发生某种故障的概率;其次将污闪严重度定义为污闪电压越限严重度函数、污闪频率越限严重度函数和污闪过负荷严重度函数的加权和并得出系统污闪下各输电线路的运行风险值;最后依据输电线路的风险指标值进行排序,并利用模糊C均值分类法(fuzzy C-means,FCM)将输电线路分成三大类,分别对应着3个辅助决策(不计成本爬/扫/涂,针对性爬/扫/涂,可缓爬/扫/涂).通过WSCC-9电力系统经典模型算例,进行相关计算仿真,结果验证了该理论的正确性和有效性.
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| 关 键 词： | 输电线路 污闪概率 污闪严重度 风险评估 风险指标 辅助决策 |
Operation Risk Assessment Theory and Index System of Transmission Line Taking the Probability of Pollution Flashover Into Account |
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| SHUAI Haiyan , GONG Qingwu , CHEN Daojun. Operation Risk Assessment Theory and Index System of Transmission Line Taking the Probability of Pollution Flashover Into Account[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2011, 31(16) |
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| Authors: | SHUAI Haiyan GONG Qingwu CHEN Daojun |
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| Affiliation: | SHUAI Haiyan1,GONG Qingwu2,CHEN Daojun2(1.Wuhan Technical College of Communications,Wuhan 430065,Hubei Province,China,2.School of Electrical Engineering,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China) |
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| Abstract: | Focusing on the fact that high voltage technologies are developed independently from the research on reliability of transmission lines,an operation risk assessment theory and an index system for transmission line operation considering pollution flashover were established.First,based on a pollution flashover probability model for insulators under certain operation voltage and conditional probability,the fault probability of transmission lines was obtained.Second,the pollution flashover severity was defined a... |
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| Keywords: | transmission line probability of pollution flashover pollution flashover severity risk assessment risk index assistant decision-making |
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