| 引入风险的投资项目财务效益分析模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 金礼茂,;曾建初.引入风险的投资项目财务效益分析模型[J].昆明理工大学学报(理工版),2014(4):134-137. |
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| 作者姓名： | 金礼茂 ;曾建初 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]昆明理工大学管理与经济学院; [2]昆明理工大学管理与经济学院公共基础设施项目管理研究所,云南昆明650093 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（70962003）; 昆明理工大学人才培养项目（KKSY201213063） |
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| 摘 要： | 投资项目每年所处风险环境有所差别,这导致了该投资项目各年预计净现金流量发生相对变化.本文从此变化着手,通过建模量化了风险对项目各年预计净现金流量的影响.然后,设计了一种新的风险净现值算法,该算法在净现值算法的基础上考虑了风险的影响.这种新的算法是根据预计净现金流量的变化趋势将投资项目运营期划分为不同阶段,再计算各阶段的风险净现值.案例分析表明,与常规净现值算法相比风险净现值算法得出的结论能给出更多有效信息供投资者参考.
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| 关 键 词： | 风险量化 风险净现值 财务效益分析 |
A New Financial Benefit Analysis Model with Risks for Investment Projects |
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| Affiliation: | JIN Li-mao, ZENG Jian-chu ( 1. Faculty of Management and Economics, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China; 2. Institute of Infrastructure, Faculty of Management and Economics, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China) |
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| Abstract: | The risk environment of investment projects is different every year,which causes the relative changes of expected NCF.In this paper,we build a model to quantify the influence of risk on expected NCF by analyzing these relative changes.Then,we design a new RNPV algorithm which considers the influences of risk in NPV algorithm.In this new algorithm,we divide the investment project into different stages according to the change trend of expected NCF,and then we calculate the RNPV of every stage.A case study shows that compared with the conventional NPV algorithm,the algorithm of RNPV can provide more effective information to the investors. |
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| Keywords: | risk quantification RNPV financial benefit analysis |
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