基于D-S证据理论的存货质押融资后利润分析

针对存货质押融资服务中订货周期、产品单价等因素往往无法准确预知，从而导致企业利润难以量化评价的问题，将D S证据理论引入到存货质押融资后的利润分析。该方法融合多位专家的信息，利用信任函数和似然函数，经证据推理得到融资后利润的上下界概率分布，作为利润的悲观估计和乐观估计，并以其均值作为概率分布的近似估计。实例分析表明，所提出方法较好地将订货周期、产品单价的不确定性传递到存货质押融资后利润，且比区间分析法得到的信息更丰富。该方法可为风险厌恶、风险偏好等各种类型的决策者提供较为直观和定量的分析结果，为企业的战略决策提供客观依据。

Analysis of Profit Gained from Inventory Impawn Financing Based on D-S Theory

In inventory impawn financing services,when impawn financing is adopted by a firm,some factors,such as ordering cycle and price,are difficult to be predicted exactly.Thus,it is unable to evaluate the profit gained by the firm.To solve this problem,based on the Dempster-Shafer(D-S) evidence theory,a quantitative analysis method is proposed.By this method,complementary cumulative belief and plausibility functions are constructed,respectively.Then,with evidence inference,the pessimistic and optimistic estimations of profit distribution are obtained for the firm who adopts inventory impawn financing.In this way,the mean value can be used as approximate profit.With a case problem,simulation is carried out to validate the proposed method.Results indicate that the proposed method is more objective than the traditionally probability-based method,and can get more information than methods that use interval analysis.The new method can provide evidences for decision-makers who are either risk-averse or risk-happy.