Prediction of air pollutant concentrations in Tokushima Prefecture,Japan

This paper deals with the prediction problem of air pollutant concentrations over the industrial area of Tokushima Prefecture, Japan. The mathematical model used for the prediction of air pollution, which describes the transport and diffusion of pollutants from stack emissions into the atmosphere, is expressed by the three-dimensional partial differential equation known as the advection diffusion model with initial and boundary conditions. Diffusion coefficients characterizing this model are determined effectively from the statistical processing of the available measured data obtained at two monitoring stations. The measured data of sulpher dioxide concentrations are classified by season, weather and wind speed, and then the identification of these coefficients for each class is carried out by using a line search method because of its numerical stability. The estimation theory is extensively applied to this model for obtaining the useful estimates of the spatial and temporal concentration distributions on the basis of actual measured data, in which the analytical solution of this model is given by using the Green's function under some reasonable assumptions and the suitable transformation. The effectiveness of the proposed approach for the prediction of air pollutant is indicated in simulation results.