灰色理论在边坡岩体变形预测中的应用

边坡工程中,由于材料的非连续性、非均质性以及对结构认识的不完全性,难以用确定的函数形式对边坡变形趋势进行描述。应用灰色系统的原理和方法,对边坡的变形发展进行预测是一种有效手段。本文结合GPS变形监测所获得的原始数据,建立灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,分析边坡岩体变形趋势与边坡稳定性。结果显示:灰色预测的变形数据与实测变形数据关联度较好,灰色理论用于边坡岩体变形预测是切实可行的。

Application of Grey Theory in Slope Rock Mass Deformation Forecasting

In slope projects,a definite function is unavailable to describe the trend of slope deformation due to the discontinuity and heterogeneity of rockmass material and incomplete knowledge to slope structure.By using the monitored deformation data,however,the grey system theory can be applied to forecast the development of slope deformation.The original deformation data which come from GPS monitoring are used to establish the grey forecasting model GM (1,1).Then,this model is used to analyse the trend of slope rockmass deformation and the stability of slope.The results show that the correlation of deformation data from grey forecast to deformation data from actual monitoring is better.The application of the grey theory in forecast of of slope rockmass deformation is feasible.