Market analysis for the next‐generation mobile communications (DMB) service from the perspective of innovation adoption and diffusion

This study examines market acceptance for the satellite digital multimedia broadcasting (DMB) service, one of the touted new business models in Korea's next‐generation mobile communications service market, using adoption and diffusion of innovation as the theoretical framework. Market acceptance for the satellite DMB service was assessed by predicting the demand of the service using the Bass model, and the demand variability over time was then analysed by combining the innovation adoption model proposed by Rogers (Diffusion of Innovations (5th edn). The Free Press: New York, 2003). In our estimation of the Bass model, we derived the coefficient of innovation and the coefficient of imitation using actual diffusion data from the mobile telephone service market. We also reorganized the demand data along the diffusion timeline according to Rogers' innovation adoption model, using the responses by survey subjects concerning their respective projected time of adoption. The demand prediction model revealed that diffusion for both took place forming a classical S‐curve. Concerning variability in demand for the satellite DMB service, our findings, much in agreement with Rogers' view, indicated that demand was highly variable over time and depending on the adopter group. This study, as an attempt to measure the market acceptance for the satellite DMB service, a leading next‐generation mobile communications service product, stands out from related studies in that it estimates the nature and level of acceptance for specific customer categories, using theories of innovation adoption and diffusion and survey results conducted through one‐to‐one interviews. The findings and theoretical application procedures provide practical insights into further research on market analysis of new mobile communications service‐related products. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.