制度变迁与上市公司盈利预测偏差实证研究

会计信息是企业经营管理和科学决策的重要依据，是政府对国民经济进行宏观和微观管理的重要信息来源，也是投资者和证券市场必不可少的信息资料.在我国，会计信息失真已经成为学者们研究的焦点，但在实务中会计信息失真问题的原因是多样的，如：技术因素、管理因素、体制因素等，其中制度诱因是必须考虑的一个关键因素.以制度变迁特点划分区间，从实证角度出发，按区间对深市、沪市1996～2002年429家IPO公司盈利预测偏差作了系统性研究，并从各区间中抽取30家IPO公司进行配对T检验，验证了制度变迁对会计信息质量的影响.

Empirical study on changes of institution and deviation of earning forecasts by IPO

Accounting information is the base of the business operation and scientific decision-making for (enterprises,) and is the source of information which the governments use to manage the national economy in the micro- and macro-sense. It is also essential for the investors and security market. The distortion of (accounting) information became the focus of study by scholars in China. But the causes of the distortion are complicated: the factors can be technological, managerial, or institutional. Among them, the institutional factor is a key one considered. Through empirical research, a systematic analysis is carried on the forecast deviation of the earnings for 429 IPO corporations from 1996 to 2002 in Shenzhen and Shanghai Stock (markets.) The data are divided according to the characteristics of the institution change. Furthermore, 30 IPO corporations are sampled in each group of data to carry out paired T test, and the influence of (institutional) change on the quality of accounting information is verified.