特约文章：世界高坝研究及其未来发展趋势

本文阐述了世界高坝发展历史、现状、高坝作用及未来建设和运行所面临的问题与挑战。针对高坝在流域尺度下需要解决的重大关键技术课题，分析提出了合理高度、安全标准、评价方法、多源信息融合、智能健康诊断及高坝永续利用等方面的发展趋势。从工程、社会和环境及流域综合效益等方面考虑，未来特高坝最大可接受的合理高度为300 m级，提高安全标准将是必然趋势。安全评价方法将是定值分析与风险分析的融合发展。正向仿真模拟、信息化反馈分析、风险链辨识、失事路径分析将为高坝安全性评价和安全管理决策提供有效手段。建立健全风险分级防控和隐患排查治理体系，开展高坝状态监测、健康诊断、缺陷修复、泥沙治理，维护大坝健康是实现流域高坝安全“双重预防”的重要保证，有利于高坝长期稳定安全永续利用。

Research on high dams and developing trends

This paper summarizes the history, current situation and comprehensive role of high dams in the world, and analyzes the problems and challenges in high dam construction and safety management in future. Aiming at the key technical problems faced by the construction and operation of high dams, the developing trends of high dams in acceptable and appropriate maximum height, safety standards, evaluation methodology, multi-source information fusion, intelligent health diagnosis, and sustainable utilization are put forward. Taking into consideration the issues related to engineering, society, environment and comprehensive benefits in the river basin, it is demonstrated that an acceptable and appropriate maximum height of extra-high dams in the future is approximately 300 m. Thus, it will be imperative to improve the safety standards, and better integration of constant value analysis and risk analysis should be a major trend in the future development of safety evaluation methods. Other methods, such as forward simulation, information feedback analysis, risk chain identification, and failure path analysis, will also be effective means for the safety evaluation and safety management decision-making of high dams. A risk classification management and potential risk inspection system together with implementation of monitoring, health diagnosis, defect repairs, sediment treatment, operation and maintenance of high dams should be established and improved. All these measures are conducive to the long-term, stable, safe and sustainable use of high dams.