武器装备体系能力需求论证方法初探

武器装备体系具有很强的动态性,这种动态性主要表现为装备对象、关系和环境的动态性,因此,在全面考虑体系作战能力需求时,将面临大量的不确定性因素.针对武器装备体系能力需求论证可能面临的不确定性因素,依据国内外在武器装备体系论证领域的研究成果,总结出处理不确定性的三种方法:以价值为中心的方法、探索性分析方法、层次化递阶实验方法.三种方法提出的基点是在获取有效的论证结果的同时,尽量降低论证工作的复杂度.在武器装备体系能力需求论证过程中,根据所面临的不确定性选择合适的论证方法,将能以最少的资源获取最有效的论证结果,为决策者的决策提供所需的参考资料.

Preliminary Research on Capability Requirement Demonstration Methodology of Armament System of Systems

Armament System of Systems is highly dynamic,and the dynamic performance mainly includes dynamics of armament objects,relationships and environment. Therefore,lots of uncertainties will be faced when considering combat capability requirement completely. In this paper,focused on uncertainties which may be faced in armament system of systems capability requirement demonstration,based on research results of armament system of systems demonstration area at home and abroad,three methods are summed up to deal wit...