| 应用正态概率模型预测油田含水率变化规律 |
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| 引用本文： | 沈楠,杜军社,王国先,富玉芳,邹民,乔跃华,蔡军. 应用正态概率模型预测油田含水率变化规律[J]. 新疆石油地质, 2007, 28(5): 609-611 |
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| 作者姓名： | 沈楠 杜军社 王国先 富玉芳 邹民 乔跃华 蔡军 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院 地质与地球物理研究所 北京 100029; 2.中国石油 新疆油田分公司 彩南油田作业区, 新疆 阜康 831511; 3.中国石油 新疆油田分公司 准东采油厂勘探开发研究所, 新疆 阜康 831511 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用正态概率模型可以方便地确定水驱动态变化、描述水驱特征参数,这就使得预测油田含水率、采收率、评价开发措施变得比较简便而实用。油田开发实践表明,当油田进入中含水期后,不论是S型、凸型,还是凹型水驱特征曲线都可以应用正态概率模型进行预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 含水率 采出程度 预测 正态概率 模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-3873（2007）05-0609-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-11-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-11-06 |
Using Normal Probability Model to Forecast Performance of Water Cut in Waterflood Oilfield |
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| SHEN Nan,DU Jun-she,WANG Guo-xian,FU Yu-fang,ZOU Min,QIAO Yue-hua,CAI Jun. Using Normal Probability Model to Forecast Performance of Water Cut in Waterflood Oilfield[J]. Xinjiang Petroleum Geology, 2007, 28(5): 609-611 |
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| Authors: | SHEN Nan DU Jun-she WANG Guo-xian FU Yu-fang ZOU Min QIAO Yue-hua CAI Jun |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Institute of Geology and Geophysics, CAS, Beijing 100029, China; 2. Cainan Oilfield District, Xinjiang Oilfield Company, PetroChina, Fukang, Xinjiang 831511, China; 3. Institute of Exploration and Development, Zhundong Production Plant, Xinjiang Oilfield Company, PetroChina, Fukang, Xinjiang 831511, China |
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| Abstract: | Using normal probability model is more simple and efficient to determine performance and eharacteristic parameter of waterflood oilfield, so it is feasible and practicable to forecast water cut and oil recovery of wateffood oilfield and evaluate its development measures. The comparison and application show that the normal probability model can be applied to forecasting the performance of water cut when the oilfield enters into medium water cut stage for either S-type, convex-type or concave-type curves. |
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| Keywords: | Water cut recovery percent prediction normal probability, model |
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