建设项目风险分析专家系统框架研究

建设项目风险分析是建设项目管理的一个非常重要的方面，是项目取得既定目标的有力保障，但是由于建设项目本身的特点，以及外部环境的复杂性和不确定性，致使建设项目风险分析的工作难度极大，并且分析的结果与实际发生的情况有较大差别，专家系统是集多领域、多专家知识的计算机系统，是解决非线性和不确定性问题的强有力的工具，因此，在建设项目风险分析中引入专家系统作为工具，将具有非常现实的经济意义，通过分析建设风险分析的过程和特点，从总体上阐述了建设项目风险分析专家系统的设计框架，以及各组成部分的构成说明，并给出了基于面向对象的“知识权-对象权”知识表示方法及基于实例的推理机制。

Risk analysis expert system for construction projects

Risk analysis is an important aspect of the risk management for a construction project,and it is the powerful guarantee for a projects to achieve its target.However,due to the characteristics of a construction pro-ject and the complication and uncertainty of external environments,it is very difficult to carry out the risk analy-sis for a construction project.Furthermore,there are always big differences between the result of risk analysis and the factual practice.The expert system is a kind of computer system that consists of domain expert knowl-edge,and it is an effective tool to resolve the non-linearity and uncertainty question.So,there are great practical and economic significance to apply the expert system as a tool for the risk analysis of a construction project.This paper analyses the procedure and characteristic of a construction project,and presents the whole design frame-work of a construction project risk analysis expert system,and discusses its constitution.Furthermore,this paper gives the object-based knowledge representation method,the Knowledge Weight and Object Body,and the case-based reasoning mechanism.