| 基于加权马尔可夫链的杭州市年降水量预测 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 施程,桑广书. 基于加权马尔可夫链的杭州市年降水量预测[J]. 浙江水利科技, 2012, 0(5): 21-23,44 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 施程 桑广书 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 浙江师范大学地理与环境科学学院,浙江金华,321004 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 采用加权马尔可夫链模型和模糊及理论中的级别特征值原理,分析了1956—2008年杭州市的年降水量,预测了2009—2011年杭州市的年降水状态和年降水量,预测误差远小于20%的允许误差,说明加权马尔可夫链应用于杭州市年降水量的预测是可行的。最后计算了2012年杭州市年降水状态为4,即偏丰年,年降水量预计为1 621 mm。
|
| 关 键 词： | 马尔可夫链 模糊集理论 降水量预测 杭州市 |
An Annual Precipitation Prediction Based on Weighted Markov Chain in Hangzhou |
| |
| SHI Cheng,SANG Guang-shu. An Annual Precipitation Prediction Based on Weighted Markov Chain in Hangzhou[J]. Zhejiang Hydrotechnics, 2012, 0(5): 21-23,44 |
| |
| Authors: | SHI Cheng SANG Guang-shu |
| |
| Affiliation: | (College of Geography and Environmental Science , Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua 321004, Zhejiang, China) |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on weighted Markov chain medel and the level characteristics value of fuzzy sets, this paper analyze the annualprecipitation data in Hangzhou from 1956 to 2008, then forecaste the precipitation data from 2009 to 2011. The predicting errors are far less then the request of predication precision, which is about 20%. It shows the model is successfully applied inHangzhou. Finally author cacttlate the annual precipitation state of 2012 in Hangzhou is about 4, it means an relatively rich year,and the amount of precipitation is about 1 621 mm. |
| |
| Keywords: | markov chain fuzzy sets precipitation prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
