An approach to discovering risks in development process of large and complex systems

When building a large and complex system, such as satellites, all sorts of risks have to be managed if it were to be successful. For risks in the design of an artifact, various reliability analysis techniques such as FTA or FMEA have been employed in the engineering domain. However, risks exist as well in the development process, and they could result in a failure of the system. In this paper, we present an approach to discovering risks in development process by collecting and organizing information produced during development process at low cost. We describe a prototype system called IDIMS, and show how it can be used to discover risks from e-mail communications between developers. The motivation of our work is to overcome thecapture bottleneck problem, and utilize now wasted information to improve development process. Yoshikiyo Kato: He received his B. Eng. (1998) and M.Eng. (2000) degrees in aeronautics and astronautics from The University of Tokyo. From September 1998 to July 1999, he was an exchange student at Department of Computer Science and Engineering of University of California, San Diego, and worked on software engineering tools. From May 2001 to July 2002, he was a research assistant at National Institute of Informatics (Japan). He is currently a Ph.D. student at Department of Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies of the University of Tokyo. His research interests include knowledge management, CSCW, HCI and software engineering He is a member of AAAI and JSAI. Takahiro Shirakawa: He received his B.Eng. (2000) and M.Eng. (2002) degrees in aeronautics and astronautics from the University of Tokyo. He is currently an assistant examiner at Japan Patent Office. Kohei Taketa: He received his B.Eng. (2000) and M.Eng. (2002) degrees in aeronautics and astronautics from the University of Tokyo. He is currently a software engineer at NTT Data Corp. Koichi Hori, Dr.Eng.: He received B.Eng, M.Eng, and Dr.Eng. degrees in electronic engineering from the University of Tokyo, Japan, in 1979, 1981, and 1984, respectively. In 1984, he joined National Institute of Japanese Literature where he developed AI systems for literature studies. Since 1988, he has been with the U University of Tokyo. He is currently a professor with Department of Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies, The University of Tokyo. From September 1989 to January 1990, he also held a visiting position at University of Compiegne, France. His current research interests include AI technology for supporting human creative activities, cognitive engineering, and Intelligent CAD systems. He is a member of IEEE, ACM, IEICE, IPSJ, JSAI, JSSST and JCSS.