黄河流域天然径流量与气候因子的小波分析

利用黄河流域6个水资源区1961—2005年的年平均气温、年降水量、年水面蒸发量和年天然径流量数据和小波分析方法,研究了气候因子和天然径流量的多时间尺度波动周期及其相互关系。结果表明:黄河流域各气候因子的主要波动周期为3、7、18 a,年天然径流量的主要波动周期为3、6、18 a;年均气温与年天然径流量的波动周期呈负相关关系,小波互相关能量聚集尺度为6 a和18 a;年降水量与年天然径流量的波动周期呈正相关关系,小波互相关能量聚集尺度为3 a和6 a;年水面蒸发量与年天然径流量的波动周期呈负相关关系,小波互相关能量聚集尺度为3、12、20 a。由此可见,气候因子的波动周期对水资源量的变化具有重要影响。

Wavelet Analysis of Natural Runoff and Climatic Factors in the Yellow River Basin

Using annual mean air temperature,precipitation,free water surface evaporation and natural runoff data from 1961 to 2005 in six water resources regions of the Yellow River basin and wavelet analysis method,we discussed periods of climatic factors and natural runoff at multiple time scales,and their relationships.The climatic factors show that main periods are around 3,7,and 18 years,whereas the main periods of natural annual runoff are around 3,6,and 18 years.The wavelets cross correlation between precipitation and natural runoff is positive with energy concentration scales of 3 and 6 years.In contrast,the wavelets cross correlation between temperature and natural runoff and between evaporation and natural runoff are negative.The corresponding energy concentration scales are 6 and 18 years for temperature and 3,12,and 20 years for evaporation.Therefore,periodic variations in climatic factors have an important impact on the changes of water resources volumes.