基于负荷分解的城市长期负荷预测模型研究

我国城市出现了快速增长的空调负荷。考虑空调负荷的增长规律及影响因素，从负荷分解的角度构建了城市长期负荷预测模型。在模型中，高峰负荷被分解为3部分：居民空调负荷、工作区空调负荷以及基本负荷。以上海为例进行的实证研究表明，基于负荷分解的预测模型能够反映城市电力需求的增长，可为需求侧管理提供制定政策的依据。

Research of urban long-term load forecasting model based on load decomposition

Considering rapid increasing of air-conditioning load appearing in China cities, the paper builds a long-term load forecasting model for cities on the basis of load decomposition. The peak load in the model is decomposed into three parts including residual air-conditioning load, workspace air-conditioning load and basic load. Demonstration is made by the case of Shanghai. The result shows that the model can reflect the urban power demand growth and provide policy reference for DSM.