塔河缝洞型油藏产量变化预测模型研究

塔河缝洞型碳酸盐岩油藏埋藏深,非均质性极强,开采难度大,预测油田产量的变化规律对后期开发方案的制定及调整都至关重要,然而各单元产量极易受到外界因素的影响,难以预测。以实际生产数据为基础,结合相关性分析原理,利用因子分析法针对XX单元建立了综合考虑采油井数、注水井数、采油速度等影响因素的产量预测模型。通过对XX单元实际生产数据的预测分析可知,该模型能够较好地对油田产量进行预测,为该类油藏产量变化规律的预测提供了一种简单、实用的方法。

Forecast model of production changes in fractured-vuggy reservoirs of Tahe oilfield

The fractured-vuggy carbonate reservoirs of Tahe oilfield have characteristics of deep buried depth,strong heterogeneity and great difficulty in developing and it is of great importance to predict the variation regularity of production changes for later design and adjustment of development plan.However,the production is easily influenced by outside factors,so it is very difficult to make the production forecast.In this paper,based on the actual production data,combined with correlation analysis principle,the production forecast model of XX unit with the consideration of the number of output wells,the number of injection wells,oil production rate and so on was established through the method of factor analysis.The effectiveness of this model is shown through the result of the comparison of forecasting data and actual data.Therefore,a simple,practical and effective method to predict the production changes for this kind of reservoir is provided.