| 基于小波分解与气象因素影响的电力系统日负荷预测模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 谢宏,陈志业,牛东晓,赵磊.基于小波分解与气象因素影响的电力系统日负荷预测模型研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2001,21(5):5-10. |
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| 作者姓名： | 谢宏 陈志业 牛东晓 赵磊 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 华北电力大学,
2. 华北电业管理局, |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(50077007)；国家电力公司重点学科基金资助项目(A98B03)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用小波变换对日负荷数据进行分解处理，使得数据信息相对集中，在此基础上将小波分量分解为受气象因素影响的部分与不受气象因素影响的部分之和，对受气象因素影响的部分采用咽归方法建立气象因素影响模型；对不受气象因素影响的部分，幅值大的分量建立顺归神经网络预测模型，进行重点预测，而对幅值小的分量建立线形ARMA（p,q）模型。这样不仅提高了预测精度，还能提高建模效率。
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| 关 键 词： | 电力系统 日负荷预测 小波分解 气象因素 预测模型 |
| 文章编号： | 0258-8013 (2001) 05-0005-06 |
THE RESEARCH OF DAILY LOAD
FORECASTING MODEL BASED ON WAVELET DECOMPOSING AND CLIMATIC INFLUENCE |
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| XIE Hong,CHENG Zhi-ye,NIU Dong-xiao,ZHAO Lei.THE RESEARCH OF DAILY LOAD
FORECASTING MODEL BASED ON WAVELET DECOMPOSING AND CLIMATIC INFLUENCE[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2001,21(5):5-10. |
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| Authors: | XIE Hong CHENG Zhi-ye NIU Dong-xiao ZHAO Lei |
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| Affiliation: | XIE Hong 1,CHENG Zhi ye 1,NIU Dong xiao 1,ZHAO Lei 2 |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, the wavelet transform is applied to decompose daily load data into wavelet components. Each component is considered as the sum of two parts, one of which is influenced by climatic factor and a polynomial regressive model is built for this part. The other part, however, is not influenced by climatic factors. When its variance is bigger, a recurrent neural networks forecasting model is built. Otherwise a ARMA( p,q ) model is done. In this way, the precision of forecast can be improved and the efficiency of building model is increased. |
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| Keywords: | wavelet decomposition climate recurrent neural networks load forecast |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
