黄河上中游水沙变化特点分析及未来趋势展望

本文对1950年以来黄河上中游水沙变化特点进行了分析，分析结果表明，自50年代以来黄河上游水沙总体上呈逐年代递减的趋势，其中尤以80年代和90年代减少量为显著。90年代是1950年以来黄河上中游径流总量最少的十年，而输沙量较80年代有所增加。本文还就气候因素、工业业用水以及水利水保工程对水沙变化的影响作了简要分析，在此基础上，对未来黄河三门峡以上区的水沙变化趋势进行了展望。

Analysis on the Characteristics of Runoff and Sediment and the Outlook of their Tendency in the Future in the Upper and Middle Yellow River

This paper analyses the characteristics of runoff and sediment changes since 1950 in the Upper and Middle Yellow River. The results show that the runoff and sediment have a tendency of decreasing each decade as a whole, especially in 1980s and 1990s it decreased most obviously. The total runoff in 1990s is the least since 1950, but compared with 1980s, the sediment in 1990s increased a little. This paper simply analyses that the climate change, water consumption of industry and agriculture and engineering of conservancy and water and soil conservation influence on variety of runoff and sediment. Based on these, the outlook of the tendency of runoff and sediment variety in the future in the upper area from Sanmenxia is put forward.