不同改进灰色模型在广西年用水量预测中的应用研究

以广西全区2005-2014年的年用水量资料作为建模数据,采用灰色GM(1,1)模型进行预测研究。为了提高预测精度,分别对传统灰色GM(1,1)模型进行了不同方式的改进,通过比较发现4种灰色模型的预测结果均较理想,平均精度达到了99.5%。其中传统灰色GM(1,1)模型为99.0%、函数变换改进的灰色模型为99.4%、残差修正后的灰色模型为99.7%、经弱化算子处理后的灰色模型为99.9%,同时也充分验证了灰色模型在广西年用水量预测中的可靠性。

Application of different improved grey model on the water consumption prediction in Guangxi

Based on the annual water consumption data from 2005 to 2014 in Guangxi, the gray GM (1,1) model was used for prediction. In order to improve the prediction precision, the traditional grey GM (1,1) model was improved in different ways. It is found that the prediction results of the four grey models are ideal, and the average precision reached 99.5%. The precision of the traditional grey GM(1,1) model is 99.0%, the function transformation improved grey model is 99.4%, the revised residual grey model is 99.7%, and the weakening operator treated grey model is 99.9%, also the reliability of water consumption in Guangxi in grey model are fully verified.