| 中长期负荷组合预测的改进 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈存,郭伟,范建中. 中长期负荷组合预测的改进[J]. 江苏电机工程, 2007, 26(1): 11-14 |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈存 郭伟 范建中 |
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| 作者单位： | 东南大学电气工程学院,江苏,南京,210096;常州供电公司,江苏,常州,213000 |
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| 摘 要： | 对中长期负荷组合预测进行了研究,提出了基于预测有效度最优的原则来求取组合预测加权系数的方案。通过引入可信赖域,改进预测精度矩阵,来推导单个预测和组合预测的阶预测有效度。由拟合样本因子区分样本区和预测区的加权系数,给出预测区加权系数的公式,得出基于一阶和二阶有效度最优原则的中长期负荷组合预测模型。算例结果表明,2种预测模型具有良好的预测精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 负荷预测 组合模型 预测有效度 可信赖域 拟合样本因子 |
| 文章编号： | 1009-0665（2007）01-0011-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-08-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-08-082006-10-12 |
Improvement of Combined Method of Mid-long Term Load Forecast |
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| CHEN Cun,GUO Wei,FAN Jian-zhong. Improvement of Combined Method of Mid-long Term Load Forecast[J]. Jiangsu Electrical Engineering, 2007, 26(1): 11-14 |
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| Authors: | CHEN Cun GUO Wei FAN Jian-zhong |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China; 2.Changzhou Power Supply Company, Changzhou 213000, China |
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| Abstract: | The changeable weight combined method is presented based on the principles of forecast effectiveness optimization through study of mid-long load combined forecast. The method deduces the forecast effectiveness of single and combined forecast by introducing confidence field and improving forecast precision matrix. The weighted coefficients of the sample field and the forecast field are divided by sample fitting factors. The formula of weight number of forecast field is given, and the combined model of mid-long term load forecast based on the 1-order and 2-order forecast effectiveness optimum principle is obtained. The results of study cases show that the two forecast models have good forecasting precisions. |
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| Keywords: | load forecasting combined model forecast effectiveness confidence field sample fitting factor |
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