基于风险分析的CNCP参与者阈值确定方法

在FIPA的合同网确认协议中，通过设置阈值来限制参与者投标数量可以降低参与者无任务被授权的风险和发起者选择次优解的风险，减少系统通信量，因此，如何确定参与者阈值是关键问题。该文通过分析参与者无任务被授权的风险和发起者选择次优解的平均风险，定义了参与者风险公式和发起者风险公式，提出了一种基于风险分析的参与者阈值确定方法MRA，解决了该问题。通过一个实例分析，论证了MRA不仅限制了参与者和发起者的风险，而且减少了系统通信量，从而提高了系统的整体性能。

Research on Risk-analysis-based Method of Determining Participant Threshold

The contract net with confirmation protocol(CNCP) is a widely used coordination mechanism in multi-agent systems(MAS).But it can easily make the performance degrade when the number of participants and initiators increases.By setting a proper threshold of participants during the interaction between initiators and participants,it can reduce the risk of initiators and the amount of messages.How to determine the threshold becomes the key to solving the problem.Risks of both participants and initiators are analyzed,and the risk formule of participants and initiators are defined.A new method based on risk analysis(MRA) is proposed.This method solves the problem of how to determine the participant threshold.An example is given,which proves that MRA can limit the risk of participants and initiators,and reduce the amount of messages,which improves the performance of MAS.