房价增长时期商品房需求调控模型研究

需求是影响商品房价格的关键因素之一,有效的调控住房需求是宏观调控商品房价格,抑制房价上涨的重要手段和途径.分析了影响房价增长的需求影响因素及其结构关系,建立了影响房价增长的需求反馈模型,分时段构建了商品房需求与房价(期望)、可支配收入、储蓄和利率等因素的商品房需求调控模型,对模型进行了回归分析和检验.结果表明,2003年以前,可支配收入和储蓄是决定需求的关键,2003年以后,价格预期和利率对需求变动影响较以前变得更为重要.研究结果和近期我国实施的宏观调控政策与商品房需求关系相吻合.

Effects of macro-control-policy on housing demand during the period of rapidly increasing price

Demand is one of the critical factors affecting housing prices.Effectively controlling housing demand is an important means to restrain soaring prices.The authors analyzed factors affecting housing demand and their structural relationships,and then set up a demand feedback model.Based on the above analysis,models of macro-control-policy during period of increasing price were investigated for the pre-2003 and the post-2003 periods,respectively.Regression analysis and model evaluation were conducted.The resul...