|
|||||
|
|
| 一种考虑径流预报及其不确定性的水库优化调度模型 | |
| 引用本文： | 唐国磊,周惠成,李宁宁,王雅军.一种考虑径流预报及其不确定性的水库优化调度模型[J].水利学报,2011,42(6):641-647,656. |
| 作者姓名： | 唐国磊 周惠成 李宁宁 王雅军 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 大连理工大学,建设工程学部,辽宁大连116023 2. 大连东软信息学院,辽宁,大连,116023 3. 二滩水电开发有限公司,四川,成都,610021 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(50579095) |
| 摘 要： | 鉴于纯随机径流描述或确定性径流预报的水库(群)优化调度模型,未考虑径流预报及其不确定性,导致优化计算结果与水库实际运行情况存在较大差异.本文提出了一种利用后验的径流状态转移概率和径流预报的可预测性概率来描述径流预报及其不确定性的优化调度模型.依据二滩水电站径流及其预报的实际状况,考虑不同预见期的径流预报信息,建立了考虑... |
| 关 键 词： | 发电调度 不确定性 后验状态转移概率 可预测性概率 |
Optimal operation model for hydropower station considering the inflow forecast and its uncertainty |
|
| TANG Guo-lei,ZHOU Hui-cheng,LI Ning-ning and WANG Ya-jun.Optimal operation model for hydropower station considering the inflow forecast and its uncertainty[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2011,42(6):641-647,656. | |
| Authors: | TANG Guo-lei ZHOU Hui-cheng LI Ning-ning and WANG Ya-jun |
| Affiliation: | TANG Guo-lei 1,ZHOU Hui-cheng 1,LI Ning-ning 2,WANG Ya-jun 3 (1.Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116023,China,2.Dalian Neusoft Institute of Information,3.Ertan Hydropower Development Company,Ltd,Chengdu 610021,China) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an optimal operation model for hydropower station considering the inflow forecast and its uncertainty through a posterior transition probability and predictive probability.Taking the Ertan Hydropower Station as an example,the optimal operation model is formulated by ultilizing the runoff forecast with various lead-times as hydrological regime including the observed and predicted runoffs.The results demonstrate that the proposed optimal operation model improves the current models for both... |
| Keywords: | optimal operation uncertainty posterior inflow transition probability predictive probability |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |
| 点击此处可从《水利学报》浏览原始摘要信息 | |
| 点击此处可从《水利学报》下载全文 | |