基于Fisher判别分析法的滑坡稳定性评估模型及其应用

我国西南地区滑坡灾害点多面广、规模小、危害大,预测预报很大程度依赖群测群防体系。针对这种现状,该文提出了一种基于Fisher判别分析法的滑坡稳定性定性评估模型。该模型从致灾因素方面考虑,以发育地层类型、地貌类型、坡度、前后缘相对高差、灾体面积和灾体体积为判别因子,在历史资料的基础上,建立判别模型,对未知潜在滑坡进行判别归类,是一种典型的工程类比模型。该文对建立模型的原理和方法进行了论述,并以重庆酉阳县部分滑坡灾害隐患点资料为样本,详细说明了评估过程,并验证了模型的正确率,证明该模型可靠度比较高,并且简单实用,便于在群测群防体系中大范围推广使用。

Fisher Discriminant Analysis-based Assessment Model and Application in Landslide Stability Assessment

Landslide disaster in southwest China is characterized by wide spreading, small scale and great harm and prediction depends largely on the mass monitoring and prevention system. Based on this situation, Fisher discriminant analysis-based assessment model is presented for landslide stability assessment. Given disaster causes, the model takes stratum type, landform type, slope degree, relative height difference of front and rear edges, disaster scale and disaster volume as discriminant factors. Discriminant model, established in accordance with historic data and classifying unknown potential landslide, is a typical engineering analogy model. Establishment principles and methods of the model are discussed. Based on the data of some places with landslide hazard of Youyang county in Chongqing, the assessment process is elaborated in detail, and accuracy of the model is verified. The results show that the model is a reliable, simple, practical,and easy tool and its application should be popularized in mass monitoring and prevention system.