我国煤炭产量预测研究

根据我国不同煤矿煤炭产量变化的特点，分别采用了一元线性回归、自回归模型和干预分析模型对国有重点、国有地方及乡镇煤矿的产量进行了预测，提高了预测精度；并根据预测结果与需求预测相比较，得出本世纪初的十几年内，我国煤炭市场供给将出现较大缺口，应引起有关部门的高度重视。

STUDY ON FORECASTED TREND OF CHINA''''S COAL OUTPUT

Based on the output changes of different coal mines,one variable linear regression model,autoregressive model and intervention analysis model are applied to forecast the output of state-owned important mines,state-owned local-run mines and town-village-run coal mines.These models improve the precision of the forecast.Comparing the forecasted results of coal output with coal demand,the conclusion is drawn that the coal supply of coal-market of China will be insufficient in the first several decades of the 21th century,which should be paid much attention to by decision-makers.