化工装置材料损伤和寿命预测技术的研究

文章综述了笔者及所在科研组近年来在化工静设备，如热交换器、塔器、反应器、工业炉、储槽、储罐（球罐）、压力容器和管道等的材料损伤和寿命预测技术领域的研究进展。由于各种设备结构不同，工况条件各异，导致材料损伤的机理也不相同。文章从它们的共性问题和方法论高度进行了研究。内容包括：①按照方法论要求，提出了处理工程参数不确定性问题的途径；②用定量金相分析方法揭示金属材料服役后微观组织变化、确定其损伤程度并预测寿命。理论成果的应用取得了工程实际的成效，并获重要社会效益和经济效益。

A Study on Methodology for Predicting the Damage to Structural Materials and Remaining Life of Process Equipment

The universe of methodology for predicting the damage to structural materials and remaining life of process equipment is a branch of subject of a newly developing discipline-FORECASTING.The technique for predicting the damage to structural materials and remaining life of process equipment based on the use of experience of multi discipline is a comprehensive technology in the field of modern technical management of facilities.Some contents of this technique have been selected among the subjects of emerging technologies to be developed over this century. In this study,a series of new techniques for predicting the damage to structural materials and remaining life of porcess equipment have been developed,which are based on principles of approximate and plausible reasonings for uncertain parameters of fuzziness by fuzzy set theory;of quantitative metallographic technique by methods of stereoscopy and visual treatment technique.The technique proposed is of great significances for ensuring safe,high efficiency and long period operations in modernized large scale and high parameter facilities of chemical,petrochemical,nuclear and electric power plants. The main contributions of the technique proposed in this work are on engineering applications which provide major benefits in economics and society.The technique will be a bright future in use.