Roles of nuclear energy in Japan's future energy systems

The roles of nuclear energy in Japan's future energy systems were analyzed from the viewpoint of securing stable energy supply and reducing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. The MARKAL model, developed in the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP) of the IEA, was used for establishing several energy scenarios with different assumptions on the availability of nuclear energy, natural gas, and a CO₂ disposal option. Nuclear energy was assumed to apply for synthetic fuel production as well as for conventional electric power generation. By comparing the CO₂ emission and system costs between these energy scenarios, following results were obtained. Without nuclear energy, the CO₂ emissions will hardly be reduced because of substantial increases in coal utilization. CO₂ disposal will be effective in reducing the emissions, however at much higher costs than the case with nuclear energy. The expansion of natural gas imports, if alone, will not reduce the emissions at enough low levels.