| 用蒙特卡罗法进行泄洪风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵经华,王长新. 用蒙特卡罗法进行泄洪风险分析[J]. 东北水利水电, 2005, 23(10): 1-3 |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵经华 王长新 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆农业大学,水利与土木工程学院,新疆,乌鲁木齐,83002;新疆农业大学,水利与土木工程学院,新疆,乌鲁木齐,83002 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文以吉林台水电站为例,运用蒙特卡罗法计算了考虑洪水过程中洪峰位置不同时的泄洪风险,对洪峰位置靠前和洪峰位置靠后的洪水过程的泄洪风险分别进行了计算,结果表明后者的风险值大于前者,这说明洪水过程中洪峰位置的不确定性对泄洪风险的影响是不可忽略的。
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| 关 键 词： | 泄洪风险 蒙特卡罗法 吉林台水电站 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-0624（2005）10-0001-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-04-11 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-04-11 |
Analysis of flood discharging rich with Monte-carlo method |
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| ZHA Jing-hua,WANG Chang-xin. Analysis of flood discharging rich with Monte-carlo method[J]. Water Resources & Hydropower of Northeast China, 2005, 23(10): 1-3 |
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| Authors: | ZHA Jing-hua WANG Chang-xin |
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| Affiliation: | ZHA0 Jing-hua,WANG Chang-xin |
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| Abstract: | The paper calculates the flood discharging rich considering the flood process uncertainty rich value taking Jilintai water power station as the example with Monte-carlo method,compares the flood discharging rich value of considering the flood process and no-considering the flood process,the result indicates that the rich value of the latter is bigger than the rich value of the former.This shows that the influence of the uncertainty of flood process to the flood discharging rich cannot neglect. |
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| Keywords: | flood discharging rich Monte-carlo method Jilintai water power station |
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